Poland’s Path to Military Leadership in the European Union – Potential and Challenges

Abstract

The article highlights the potential of the Polish Armed Forces (PAF) to assume the role of military leader in the European Union. The author defines the position of leader as the result of three dimen-sions: personnel, capabilities and institutions, and recognition and responsibility. The considerations are set in the context of the evolution of EU security policy, which, after years of marginalization, was re-vised as a result of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The author emphasizes that the instruments used by the European Union, such as PESCO and CARD, are still based on the voluntary participation of member states. The central point of the article is an assessment of Poland’s potential, which is based on its strategic location, unprecedented growth in defense spending (over 4% of GDP), and comprehensive reforms resulting from the Homeland Defense Act. These measures, legitimized by high public support as recorded in surveys, have led to a sharp increase in the size and capabilities of the army. In the final section, based on a comparative analysis with the leading EU armies, it was shown that the scale of technical modernization and the dynamic, more than twofold increase in personnel capacity over the last decade have made the Polish Armed Forces the largest army in the Community.